Does this count as a demurral for the presidential sweepstakes? Or is Ted Cruz simply playing coy?  CNN’s Manu Raju reported earlier today on a brief exchange between the 2016 runner-up and reporter Ted Barrett:

Asked if he is running for re-election to the Senate or running for the WH, Ted Cruz tells @tedbarrettcnn: “I’m running for reelection to the Senate.”

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) February 14, 2023

Coming on the heels of Nikki Haley’s entry into the race, this sounds like a statement of non-candidacy. Cruz had a tougher time than predicted in holding the Senate seat in 2018, as Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke pulled within four points of Cruz two years after the presidential race. Since then, Cruz has stuck more to the business of the Senate than he did in his first term, likely concerned that another term spent chasing presidential ambitions might leave the seat vulnerable to another Democrat challenger.

Probably not Beto, though. His collapse in the gubernatorial race in 2022 should have disabused progressive donors of any pretense of electability in Texas for an outright gun-grabber.

So it makes some sense to hear that Cruz will sit this out — if in fact that’s what he meant. However, Cruz got asked the same question yesterday by CBS News’ Dallas affiliate, and he gave the same answer — but with considerably more nuance, and with a big caveat:

As for reelection plans, Cruz would only definitively say he’s running for a third term in the U.S. Senate next year. State election code allows candidates to run for president or vice president and another office at the same time so we asked if he had his eye on the Oval Office.

“Look, my focus is on running for reelection for the Senate. And the Senate is the battleground right now. You know you look at what’s going on in Washington, I think the Biden administration and their agenda is hurting the people of Texas.” Cruz said. “I think there will be plenty of time to discuss the 2024 Presidential race. I’m running for re-election to the Senate.”

So it appears that neither statement is a categorical declaration of non-candidacy. There are reasons to think that’s where Cruz is going, though.

It’s true that Texas is one of the states in which a dual campaign can be run. It doesn’t make it a good idea, of course, but it’s legal and possible. However, that would only make sense if Cruz had a lock on Senate re-election and a really good chance of winning the GOP nomination. He’s likely in better position in Texas for the Senate race than six years ago, again thanks to an increased focus on Senate work over stunts since his relatively close call in 2018, but Democrats will likely find and fully fund a big-name challenger for that seat in this cycle. If it’s not Beto, then maybe they’ll woo Matthew McConaughey, or look for some other celebrity candidate. Republicans will really need an incumbent Cruz focused solely on holding the seat — or giving way early to prepare another Republican to succeed. (Of course, if Biden’s running, his name at the top of the ticket might force Democrats to spend that money defending their red-state incumbents instead.)

A pass on 2024 would be somewhat surprising for the runner-up of the previous competitive GOP primary, too. Usually the party likes to lean in the direction of The Next In Line, and Cruz might have expected to benefit from that. Eight years later, however, the presidential focus in the party now is geared far more to the executives — Trump, of course, and Ron DeSantis, now Nikki Haley, almost certainly Glenn Youngkin, and so on. Even the Senate contenders might be more fresh and interesting than Cruz at this point — Tim Scott especially.

Besides, as I discuss with Andrew Malcolm in the latest episode of The Ed Morrissey Show podcast, the juice in the GOP for presidential contenders is primarily on executives.  There are good ideological and political reasons for that, and that is a key difference from what might take place in a competitive Democrat nomination contest.

Today’s show features:

•  Yet another Big Tech platform got caught suppressing debate and conservative speech — and yet again with federal government involvement.
• Andrew Malcolm and I discuss the Microsoft/GDI scandal, We also take note of the dogs that haven’t yet barked in the media over this smear job against hundreds of American conservative and libertarian platforms, including our own.
• Andrew and I also talk a little about the Super Bowl, and more about Joe Biden’s prospects for 2024. If he defies expectations and chooses not to run, who emerges?

The Ed Morrissey Show is now a fully downloadable and streamable show at  Spotify, Apple Podcasts, the TEMS Podcast YouTube channel, and on Rumble and our own in-house portal at the #TEMS page!