The race to succeed Nancy Pelosi has already (quietly) begun

AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin

Nancy Pelosi is 82 years old and the expectation for the past several months has been that if (really when) Republicans retake the House tomorrow, she will announce her retirement. However, CNN is reporting today that Pelosi has said the recently attack on her husband by a hammer-wielding nutcase will impact her decision about retirement.

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The video itself is here. Anderson Cooper said he wouldn’t ask if she planned to retire but did ask if she’d made a decision either way. She hedged a bit and then said her decision had been affected by what had happened “in the last week or two.”

“Will your decision be impacted by the attack in any way,” Cooper asked.

“Yes,” she replied.

Technically she’s still saying what she plans to do but the implication seems to be that she may feel more of a need to be at home now that she did previously. At least that’s how the CNN panel saw it.

Personally, I think the GOP retaking the House has been a done deal for a while now. Since I don’t think Pelosi wants to continue as minority leader it seems to me she was always going to retire anyway but maybe this makes the decision easier for her. And that brings us to the question of what happens next. It turns out there are already candidates jockeying to take Nancy’s seat if she retires. One of those is her daughter Christine.

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Christine Pelosi, a Democratic activist who has served as a surrogate for her mother, is widely expected to pursue the seat if it opens. While she has made no public statements that could even be construed as an acknowledgment of her intentions, she regularly comments on social media and is active in Democratic Party affairs. She declined requests to comment about the future race for the seat, adding that she could talk after the November election.

But just because no one is publicly running for Nancy Pelosi’s seat doesn’t mean the campaign isn’t already underway.

“Given the fact that these positions don’t have term limits, and given the ATM that is San Francisco, this is going to be a brawl,” said Max Szabo, a San Francisco-based Democratic consultant. “No one is going to leave anything on the field.”…

Christine Pelosi’s party activism, Capitol Hill ties and work training emerging female leaders have helped her build a network of political players — some of whom could become allies in a House race.

Pelosi would obviously have her mother’s endorsement and some name recognition. But that doesn’t mean this race is over before it starts. She would face at least one serious opponent, state Sen. Scott Wiener who is regarded as a moderate in far left San Francisco. As Politico puts it, Wiener has some advantages Pelosi does not have.

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More than any other issue, Wiener is identified with housing policy, a champion of a movement to allay California’s severe housing crunch by easing barriers to construction, particularly of multi-unit buildings. That stance has aligned him with real estate interests that backed his election. It has also helped him build a fervent network of San Francisco supporters, some of whom work in the tech industry…

San Francisco’s LGBTQ community also has a champion in Wiener, who would be the first openly gay member of Congress to represent the city. Wiener has fought for bills and budget outlays that would directly boost the community — and occasionally has received death threats for doing so, as with a bill to reform California’s sex registry law by erasing distinctions between penalties for same-sex and heterosexual acts.

And there are other candidates waiting quietly in the wings. The unionists in San Francisco don’t like Wiener’s stance on housing and are said to be considering fielding a candidate of their own. For now, all of this is happening quietly because no one wants to offend Nancy, especially not after the attack on her husband.

“Nancy Pelosi is so well respected and so well appreciated that no one is looking forward to seeing her leave, and the last thing anybody wants is to be viewed as making even the littlest insult to the speaker,” said Todd David, a former political director for Wiener. “From a pure practical, political point of view, no one wants to offend Nancy Pelosi.”

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That’s where we are now but things could change quickly if Democrats in the House get the drubbing everyone expects they will tomorrow.

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