Things in Africa are getting ugly again.

On Wednesday, members of the Niger’s presidential guard detained the country’s president – Mohamed Bazoum – and declared they would be handling things from here on in.

…Bazoum was confined in Niamey on Wednesday by members of his presidential guard, who hours later announced that “all institutions” in the country would be suspended, the borders closed and a night-time curfew imposed.

Buffeted by political instability and repeated coups since gaining its independence from France in 1960, Niger has struggled mightily to claw its way out of Africa’s economic basement. But they just can’t seem to move out of their own way. Mohamed Bazoum was, in fact, an elected president, having won a run-off election with over 55% of the vote in February of 2021. He took office in April of that year. In just the short time he’s held the office, the currently detained president has already survived two previous coup attempts prior to this one.

The plotters have him and his family confined in the presidential palace at the moment.

…Bazoum, 63, is one of a dwindling group of pro-Western leaders in the Sahel, where a rampaging jihadist insurgency has triggered coups against elected presidents in Mali and Burkina Faso.

Their juntas, taking a nationalist stance, have forced out French troops and in the case of Mali have woven a close alliance with Russia.

Disgruntled members of the elite Presidential Guard sealed off access to the president’s residence and offices in the capital Niamey on Wednesday morning, and after talks broke down “refused to release the president,” a presidential source said.

Bazoum’s supporters hours later tried to approach the official complex, but were dispersed by members of the Presidential Guard who fired warning shots, an AFP reporter saw.

For all the brave declarations of “defending democracy” and “upholding the will of the people” coming from the president himself and members of his cabinet who have not yet been muzzled, it didn’t take long for coup leaders to form a junta and one of them declare himself ruler of the country. The plotters have also been whipping up anti-French sentiment to a frenzy in the former colony, encouraging supporters to attack the French mission and spreading tales of collusion between the ousted government and the former overlords.

…The junta accused the ousted government of authorising France to carry out an attack to try to free Mr Bazoum.

Gen Abdourahmane Tchiani, the head of the presidential guards unit, declared himself Niger’s new ruler on Friday.

West African leaders held a hasty conference to organize some sort of response. The president of Chad, Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, volunteered to meet with both coup leaders and President Bazoum, and was able to do so. Mr Déby delivered an ultimatum to junta leaders.

…Mohamed Bazoum met Chad’s leader, Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, in Niger’s capital, Niamey.

Mr Déby, who also met the coup leaders, is spearheading mediation efforts after West African leaders gave Niger’s military seven days to give up power.

…He was sent to Niger by leaders of the West African regional bloc, Ecowas. On Sunday they gave the junta a week to reinstate the elected president, who has been confined to the presidential palace in Niamey.

The regional bloc would “take all measures necessary to restore constitutional order” if its demands were not met. “Such measures may include the use of force,” a statement added.

There hasn’t been a response out of the coup leaders as of this morning.

This is where it starts to gets sticky. The coup planners are aligned with Russian interests, as are their supporters in the streets, whom they sent against the French embassy.

BREAKING: As ECOWAS under the leadership of president TINUBU of Nigeria comes under pressure from imperialist elements to intervene militarily in Niger, Nigeriens have staged a massive nationwide protest, asking ECOWAS to keep off and attacked the French embassy in that country… pic.twitter.com/uVNBNg1577

— J. C. Okechukwu (@jcokechukwu) July 31, 2023

It’s also why they’re using rumors of French retaliation to encourage more anti-French resistance.

Protestors in Niger support Russia, not France.

Why? Because people in Niger are fully aware of what France has done to their country.

France exploits their resources, and under-develops their country through a puppet government.

🇷🇺 is a symbol of freedom in Africa. pic.twitter.com/iA5fjJsUoy

— Rev Laskaris (@REVMAXXING) July 31, 2023

While also utilizing street violence in a campaign of intimidation against anyone seen as being part of collaborating with a colonial power.

Niger citizens chased politicians and burned their luxury cars 👀

pic.twitter.com/XvlWR0McmJ

— 1776 (@TheWakeninq) July 31, 2023

The junta leader played what he thinks is his trump card this morning.

In France🇫🇷, 1 in every 3 lightbulbs is powered by Uranium from Niger🇳🇪. Meanwhile in Niger, 80% of people do not have access to any electricity.

Follow .@Africa_Archives

— Africa Archives ™ (@Africa_Archives) July 31, 2023

Can the French manage without Nigerian uranium? Opinions vary. Initial reactions contained a touch of panic.

The military coup in Niger is raising fears, especially in France, over its potential impact on the import of uranium to power nuclear plants.

Niger supplies 15 percent of France’s uranium needs and accounts for a fifth of the EU’s total uranium imports. Orano, France’s state-controlled nuclear fuel producer, is continuing its activities in Niger and monitoring the situation, a company spokesperson said in a statement emailed to POLITICO, stressing that “our priority is to maintain the safety of our employees in the country.”

Energy experts were quick to stress that tensions will not have any immediate impact on France’s needs for uranium as extraction is continuing and, should it stop, existing stocks can cover approximately two years.

But the coup in Niger could be a challenge for Europe’s uranium needs in the longer term, just as the continent is trying to phase out dependency on Russia, another top supplier of uranium used in European nuclear plants.

It also means the EU might have to back off its long-planned withdrawal from dependence on Russian uranium.

In 2020, 34.7% of the uranium imported into France comes from Niger, 28.9% from Kazakhstan and 26.4% from Uzbekistan. If Niger switches to Russia, 90% of our uranium will come from Putin's sphere of influence. Did you say "energy independence"? https://t.co/KjymnoUo5j

— Tom Luongo (Head Sneetch) (@TFL1728) July 31, 2023

Energy analyst Mark Nelson, on the other hand, is much more optimistic. He says France will be able to ride out the shortage easily on their yellowcake reserves, and switch to properties in Canada for supplies. In his estimation, the ones being hurt by this will be the Nigeriens, who have the mines alone, with zero other capabilities to enhance the value of that resource.

A few harsh realities for our brave new leaders!

Uranium is cheap and common. Niger exports about $300 million per year, or $12 per person.

That uranium makes roughly $20 billion of electricity, but not in Niger. It needs to be enriched, turned into fuel, then placed in reactors.

…France can take the write-down, use their multiple years of yellowcake reserves to make up the difference, and then obtain material elsewhere, such as from their properties in Canada.

French nuclear electricity production costs could rise by a percentage point or two, even if uranium prices pop, and should stay in the range of €35-45 per MWh.

What does France do in the next few days? Do they defend Bazoum’s presidency? Or let an independent Niger rise and fall on its own, free from “colonial” interference?

That perception is so powerful right now and driving so much of Africa into the arms of China and Russia. Well, besides tribal conflicts, personal power struggles, and overwhelming rapaciousness, I mean.

You could call that a “Russian red belt” if you wanted to. The Wagner group has been busy bees in every one of those countries, and now the Algerians are threatening to open their borders to arms shipments if the French (or any non-African country) makes an interventionalist move.

World is getting dangerous! If France attacks Niger, other countries may step in to protect the new leader.

For example, Algeria may get involved or at least provide passage for arms/soldiers from Iran and Russia. https://t.co/Njw8fJC6Ya

— S.L. Kanthan (@Kanthan2030) July 31, 2023

For the record, the U.S, military does have a drone base with U.S. personnel in Niger.

For now, as the U.K. and EU withdraw aid (with the U.S. threatening the same), everyone’s waiting on the response to the ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) ultimatum. It’s a test of wills for both the 15 member organization and the junta’s leaders.

Who blinks first?