I'm talking about the one for the 3rd Congressional District in Long Island Jazz touched on earlier, between the registered Democrat but Republican nominee Mazi Pilip and her challenger, Democrat Tom Suozzi.

Only in New York, right? Like Santos wasn't trippy enough.

Throughout their campaigns for the seat, there had already been a sense of distance carefully cultivated between the candidates and the titular heads of the parties they represent. Running to fill the Santos vacancy was going to be hard and expensive enough. Neither one wanted deeply unpopular national figures coming in "to help."

"Thanks, but no thanks" has been the message until just recently.

The race to replace former Rep. George Santos in suburban Long Island appears to be a harbinger of the national mood in a presidential election year.

But the two main characters in the nation’s political story are too unpopular to set foot in the district.

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have avoided New York’s 3rd Congressional District on Long Island — a sign of voters’ deep displeasure, which has been registered in public polls. Democrat Tom Suozzi has decided it would be better for Biden to stay away, and Republican nominee Mazi Pilip spent much of the race brushing off Trump before welcoming his help in the final stretch.

Suozzi went as far as piling on Biden’s chief vulnerability in a televised interview Monday, acknowledging the president’s advanced age — a problem exacerbated last week by special counsel Robert Hur’s report describing him as a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.”

“The bottom line is, he’s old,” Suozzi told FOX 5 New York. “I mean, he’s 81 years old.” He then hedged on whether Biden would be the Democratic nominee after the party’s August convention in Chicago.

Pilip has warmed up enough to the former president to move from "Nobody is above the law" in late January to defending Trump over Jan 6 ("He didn't commit any crime"), and speaking approvingly of his strong support for Israel. She herself is a Jew who was born in Ethiopia and whose family then moved to Israel (she even served as a gunsmith in an IDF paratroopers brigade). She and her American-Ukrainian husband met at the university in Haifa, and she immigrated in 2005 when the couple came back to the states. They have seven children.

She, a registered Democrat, was elected as a Republican district legislator to the Nassau County Legislature in 2021.

Biden and Trump have each won the district before, but they are both equally unpopular this go-round. That's led to a delicate dance as both congressional candidates need those voters, too, and can't afford to offend them with benign neglect or dissension into staying home.

Still, both candidates are unpopular in the district. The same poll showed 57 percent of likely voters have an unfavorable opinion of Biden, and 55 percent feel unfavorably about Trump.

Tomorrow 2/13 is the 3rd CD Special Election.

The Dem endorsed candidate, Suozzi, is all in with the Dems’ open border and sanctuary policies, and disastrous “Bidenomics”.

The GOP endorsed candidate, Mazi Pilip, is a Paratrooper, Mother of 7, and the Squad’s Worst Nightmare!

— Lee Zeldin (@leezeldin) February 13, 2024

They're calling this election a "bellwether."

And "weather" is where another distinct chill comes in - it's Election Day, and they're in the middle of a snowstorm.

A really good snowstorm.

So what?

What don't Republicans, by tradition, do early?

V-O-T-E.

What do Democrats always, like clockwork, do early?

V-O-T-E

What are polling places on Long Island looking like right now that should be packed with Republican voters?

*gulp*

I am watching the cameras from my property in Nassau County, snow coming down strong. Spoke to friends and family, their offices are closed and they aren’t going out. This is not good.

— goomba (@o____principe) February 13, 2024

It's not like we haven't been trying to tell Republicans "bank your vote" forever and ever. Jazz looks like he had his crystal ball working overtime a week ago.

How'd he know?

For all of our Long Island tweeps, early voting has started in the special election in NY-3 to replace the disastrous George Santos. The GOP needs to hold this seat. Get out there and make it happen.

— Jazz Shaw (@JazzShaw) February 7, 2024

We have to hope the sun comes out this afternoon, as predicted. God willing the strong Republican GOTV machine Nassau County has put together...

...The other key factor keeping things close is the strength of the Nassau County Republican Party. It’s one of the last political machines in the country and has a strong get-out-the-vote operation that has been credited with helping Republicans win an array of local races in recent years and creating a strong bench in the district. There’s the belief among Republicans that, if the race is close, it will carry Pilip to victory, despite the fact that Suozzi and his allies have outspent her on TV and radio ads.

...can lure people out when the stakes are high, but the dang weather says to sit tight.

Polls close at 9 pm, Eastern.

At least let it be a nail-biter.